Bryon Morrigan's Strategic Poll Analysis, 2012 Edition
(X-Posted from Mystic Wicks)Well...time to look at the polls again, and make predictions. As always, I use the Real Clear Politics calculated averages, rather than relying on individual polls, many of which are slanted either to the Left (MSNBC, CNN, etc.), or to the Right (Rasmussen, Gallup, Fox News, etc.). I'm not going to discuss the political ramifications here, or personal opinions about the candidates' positions, but rather just analyze the figures, like I'm betting on the outcome (something I should really consider...as I've got a pretty damned good record of predicting election outcomes).
Here are the current figures in matchups, in order of who has the best chance of beating Obama, as of 08/01/2011:
Romney v. Obama: Romney 42.6% to Obama 46.9%. Obama is ahead +4.3%
Paul v. Obama: Paul 40.0% to Obama 49.8%. Obama is ahead +9.8%
Perry v. Obama: Perry 37.7% to Obama 49.3%. Obama is ahead +11.6%
Pawlenty v. Obama: Pawlenty 36.7% to Obama 49.0%. Obama is ahead +12.3%
Bachmann v. Obama: Bachmann 37.6% to Obama 50.0%. Obama is ahead +12.4%
Huntsman v. Obama: Huntsman 36.0% to Obama 50.0%. Obama is ahead +14.0%
Cain v. Obama: Cain 35.0% to Obama 49.7%. Obama is ahead +14.7%
Gingrich v. Obama: Gingrich 37.8% to Obama 52.5%. Obama is ahead +14.7%
Palin v. Obama: Palin 35.0% to Obama 55.0%. Obama is ahead +20%
The current polling, 08/01/2011, regarding the Republican nomination (excluding "straw polls," which are not covered by RCP) is as follows:
Romney: 21.6%
Bachmann: 13.2%
Perry: 12.2%
Palin: 12.1%
Giuliani: 11.0%
Paul: 8.2%
Cain: 6.6%
Gingrich: 4.8%
Pawenty: 2.8%
Santorum: 1.9%
Now, from a strategic viewpoint, one major issue has changed over the past few months. The figures regarding matchups between Obama and the GOP candidates have been almost completely static, with very little movement. However, the GOP candidate race has changed significantly. Up until a couple months ago, Romney's lead was unassailable. He was polling in the mid 30s. Now, with the addition of people like Bachmann and Perry, the new candidates have siphoned off a lot of his support.
He clearly has the best chance of beating Obama...as he is the only candidate polling above 40%, and the only candidate where the scenario doesn't show approximately 50% or more of voters choosing Obama. That's a pretty amazing figure, by the way...especially since the only way for a Republican candidate to beat such a person is to both get all of the "undecideds" AND convince some of the people who are already voting for Obama...to switch. And like I said, these figures have been static for a while, and aren't likely to change without some major event. (Compare those figures to Obama's approval rating, which goes up and down, largely due to Liberal dissatisfaction with his Centrism and weak compromising/capitulating...)
Furthermore, if you compare the GOP candidates' popularity among Republicans, compared to their polling against Obama, you see a startling trend. Many of the MOST popular Republican candidates, like Bachmann, Palin, and Perry...don't have a chance in Hell of winning against Obama. On the other hand, Ron Paul comes in second against Romney in terms of a matchup against Obama. (However, it should be noted that not a lot of polling has been calculated with him...and part of the reason for his good showing is a Rasmussen poll that is completely at odds with the other polls...)
If the Republicans were "smart," (and by "smart" here, I'm talking strategic thinking...), they'd be rallying behind the people who have the best chance of defeating Obama: Romney and Paul. But let's face it: Romney will never have the support of the Tea Party, who have just shown in these debt negotiations that they are unwilling to compromise on ANYTHING...and Ron Paul will never have the support of the establishment, which would be required to get his primary poll numbers out of the single digits. Also, some of the primary polls do not have "undeclared" candidates like Palin on the list, which ups the percentage for Romney. (IOW, he's doing worse than it appears...)
